Latest data released by ONS - 25 May 2018
- Q1 GDP +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelim
- Exports -0.5% vs +0.4% q/q expected
- Imports -0.6% vs +0.1% q/q expected
Preliminary report can be found here. Headlines are in line with estimates but the details say that adverse weather had very little to do with the poor reading.
The report says that there is no material evidence that the poor weather conditions had a negative effect on activity in the quarter, adding that slow growth in manufacturing and consumer facing services has been offset by the O&G bounce.
Meanwhile, household spending was +0.2% q/q - which represents the weakest reading since Q4 2014. And the year-on-year reading was +1.1%, the weakest since Q1 2012.
ONS also comments that they see a continuation of a pattern of slowing growth, partly due to slowness in consumer-facing industries.
I'm actually not seeing anything positive in the report as the details highlight rather weak stuff. Even business investment figures are the weakest since since Q3 2015. And with ONS not attributing the poor reading to adverse weather, it means that there is some other underlying factor bugging the economy.
Cable is up by 20 pips to 1.3365 though, with the dollar suddenly giving up earlier gains across the board.
More details:
- Private consumption +0.2% vs +0.1% q/q expected
- Government spending +0.5% vs +0.3% q/q expected
- Gross fixed capital formation +0.9% vs -0.2% q/q expected
- Total business investment -0.2% vs +0.3% q/q prior
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