London (MNI) – Manufacturing domestic sales and orders and service
sector domestic orders all slumped in the fourth quarter to their lowest
levels since back in 2009, according to the latest quarterly economic
survey from the British Chambers of Commerce published Thursday.

The data will fuel concerns growth could turn out to be negative in
the fourth quarter, or at best come in about flat. The BCC survey shows
manufacturing export balances stayed positive in the fourth quarter, but
some domestic balances in both manufacturing and services were negative.

The Q4 manufacturing home sales balance fell to zero from 3% in Q3,
the weakest outturn since Q3 2009. The manufacturing home orders balance
fell to -13% from -4% in Q3, its weakest reading since Q2 2009.

In the dominant services sector the home deliveries balance rose to
2% from zero in Q3 but home orders stayed negative, falling to -9% from
the -3% seen in Q3.

The Q4 export balances worsened for manufacturing, but were still
firmly in positive territory, while services export balances improved but
failed to turn positive.

The manufacturing export sales balance fell six points 12% from
18%, the weakest level since Q3 2009.

The manufacturing export orders balance fell to 5% from 14% also
the weakest level since Q3 2009.

The service sector export sales balance rose six points, to 10% but
the services export orders balance rose only one point, leaving it in
negative territory at -1%.

The Bank of England’s most recent forecasts, in the November
Inflation Report, predicted growth would be flat in both Q4 and Q1. This
survey appears to be pretty much in line with the BOE’s view.

The BCC survey showed the employment outlook weakening, with the Q4
manufacturing balance falling to 6% from 9% and services falling to 2%
from 6%, the weakest outturn since Q4 2010.

“The results of our latest survey are a cause for concern and point
towards stagnation in the first quarter of this year. Many of the
balances are now at levels last seen in the third quarter of 2009,
meaning improvements seen in the last two years have largely been
cancelled out,” John Longworth, Director General of the BCC, said.

–London newsroom 4420 7862 7491; email:drobinson@marketnews.com

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