UK Q4 preliminary GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q expected

Latest data released by ONS - 11 February 2020

• Prior (Q3) +0.4%
• GDP +1.1% vs +0.8% y/y expected
• Prior (Q3) +1.1%

• Private consumption +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Exports +4.1% vs +1.8% q/q expected
• Prior +7.9%
• Imports -0.8% vs -0.1% q/q expected
• Prior -0.3%
• Total business investment -1.0% q/q
• Prior 0.0%

Quarterly growth indicates that the UK economy grinds to a standstill in Q4 last year, but that is in part due to the better December month following the election. Otherwise, economic conditions may have even contracted in the final quarter of last year.

This will at least breathe some confidence towards the new year - if post-election sentiment can keep up - but with already so much focus about post-Brexit trade uncertainty, it may not last the course to suggest a meaningful rebound in Q1 this year.