UK Sept production and trade data now out 10 Nov

  • 0.3% prev rev up from 0.2%
  • yy % vs 1.9% exp vs 1.8% prev rev up from 1.6%
  • mftg prod mm 0.7% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.4% prev
  • yy 2.7% vs 2.4% exp vs 2.8% prev
  • construction output mm -1.6% vs -0.9% exp vs 0.8% prev up from 0.6%
  • yy 1.1% vs 1.7% exp vs 3.9% prev up from 3.5%

Better production data and algos responding accordingly but I expect sellers up here 1.3165-80 to prevail after a fight. Construction output soggy.

Says the ONS:

- Strong Manufacturing growth seen in Auto and Medical equipment sectors
- Underlying production 3M-to Sep grew 1.1% vs Jun
- In 3M-to-Sep vs Jun, total UK Trade deficit widened by 3.0B to 9.5B
- Imports of goods from both EU and non-EU countries increased
- Exports to EU countries rose 0.9B, while exports to non-EU countries fell by 1.7B
- In Sep, underlying Construction output trend (3M/3M) fell 0.9%
- None of today's figures or revisions materially alter Q3 2017 growth

Also out:

Sept UK visible trade GBP -11.253bln vs -12.8bln exp vs -14.245bln prev

  • non-EU visible balance GBP -2.982bln vs -5bln exp vs -4.186bln prev up from -5.835bln
  • trade balance GBP -2.754bln vs -4.3bln exp vs -3.455bln up from -5.626bln

Don't forget that none of this really makes an impact on UK GDP which is 80+% services driven.

Says the ONS:

  • In the three months to September 2017, the total UK trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £3.0 billion to £9.5 billion; this was largely due to an increase in imports of goods, primarily due to increased imports of machinery, unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) and fuels, partially offset by a decrease in imports of aircraft.

  • Imports of goods from both EU and non-EU countries increased between the three months to June 2017 and the three months to September 2017; exports to EU countries increased by £0.9 billion, while exports to non-EU countries fell by £1.7 billion in the same period

Full reports here

UK Ind Prod mm

UK visible trade mm