Latest data released by ONS - Oct 12
- July ILO unemployment rate 4.5% vs 4.5% expected
- Prior 4.6%
- July employment change 235k vs 243 expected
- Prior 183k
- July average weekly earnings +7.2% vs +7.0% 3m/3m expected
- Prior +8.3%
- July average weekly earnings (ex bonus) 6.0% vs +6.0% 3m/3m expected
- Prior +6.8%
This was expected to show a dip in the unemployment rate and a slight slowdown in wage growth. Unemployment did dip lower in line with expectations at 4.5%. Earnings were higher, but the ONS caution about relying on their calculation due to COVID-19 impacted factors.
The real test is when the job furlough scheme is not supporting the data. Nothing to note here and the GBP unfazed here. Interest rate rises and Brexit talk is main risk for GBP volatility now.
Vacancies are at a record high at 1.102 million in July to Sep
