You never know who to believe in a war but stories like this will weigh on the nerves of traders heading into the long weekend.

The Ukrainian counter-intelligence service says it has intercepted communication from Russia. It says Russia will allow/cause a conflict that sees 100-200 people killed and “after that, in an hour-and-a-half, tanks and armored personnel carriers of the Russian army will appear on the territory of Ukraine.”

Representatives of Russia, the US, the European Union and Ukraine are meeting today in Geneva.