— Adds Inflation Expectations At Bottom
— Japan Sep Consumer Confidence Index 41.2 Vs Aug 42.4
— Japan Govt Downgrades View: Consumer Confidence Nearly Flat

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s Consumer Confidence Survey index fell to 41.2
in September from 42.4 in August, posting the third consecutive
month-on-month drop, amid growing concern about job security and income
in the coming months as the economic outlook dims, the Cabinet Office
said on Tuesday.

The index also fell because fewer respondents thought it was the
right time to buy durable goods, the survey showed.

The September level was the lowest since March this year, when it
stood at 40.9.

The drop may be due in part to the government ending its program of
subsidies for purchases of fuel efficient vehicles. In addition, the
effects of the government reward program for buying greener consumer
electronics have waned.

The Cabinet Office downgraded its assessment for the second
straight month, saying: “Consumer confidence is nearly flat.” It was the
first consecutive downgrades since the three straight months of downward
revisions through December last year.

In August it downgraded its view for the first time since December
2009, noting, “Consumer confidence is marking time after showing moves
towards improvement.” Prior to August, it had said consumer confidence
appeared to be improving.

September’s 1.2-point m/m slump followed the 0.9-point fall in
August and the 0.2-point dip in July.

In June this year, the index rose by 0.7 point to 43.5, the highest
level since 44.1 marked in September 2007.

Compared to a year earlier, the overall index was still up 0.7
point in September, marking the 17th consecutive year-on-year rise,
after rising 2.3 points in August.

In today’s data, all four sub-indexes on overall economic
well-being, income growth, employment conditions and willingness to buy
durable goods fell from the previous month.

The index showing sentiment on asset values, which is not included
in the overall consumer confidence index, stood at 37.9 in September,
down 0.8 point from the previous month. It was the second straight m/m
drop.

The latest survey was conducted on Sept. 15, covering 6,720
households, of which 5,038 responded.

The survey also showed that consumer inflation expectations
remained relatively stable in September although the ratio of people
foreseeing higher prices continued to fall while that of people
expecting price drops grew marginally further.

The number of people forecasting higher prices ahead showed the
third monthly drop in the last four months in September. It had posted
five straight month-on-month rises through May 2010.

Meanwhile, the ratio of people expecting lower prices in a year’s
time rose to 13.1% of the total in September from 12.7% in the previous
month, up for the third month in a row.

But it was still much lower than the record high of 31.9% hit in
December 2009. The record low for those expecting price drops was 2.4%
marked in July 2008, when crude oil prices hit all-time highs.

Of the total surveyed, 8.8% of people said they projected a price
drop of less than 2% in September, up from 8.6% in August. Those
projecting a price decline of 2% to 5% rose to 3.7% from 3.0%.

Of all the respondents, 43.7% said they expected prices to rise in
a year’s time, down from 44.5% in August. This compared with the record
low of 29.2% marked in December 2009.

In September, those projecting inflation below 2% accounted for
22.2% of the total, down from 23.6% in the previous month.

The survey showed that 15.2% of those polled forecast an annual
inflation rate between 2% and 5% in a year’s time, up from 14.4% in the
previous month.

The ratio of people who projected unchanged prices fell to 33.4% in
September form 34.0% in August, marking the third straight monthly drop.

tokyo@marketnews.com
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