–Adds Detail To Version Transmitted At 0824 GMT

LONDON (MNI), May 6 – Voting has started in the UK 2010 general
election, with overnight opinion polls showing the Conservative lead
firming, leaving it a close call as to whether they will win an overall
parliamentary majority.

In five extensive polls carried out through to Wednesday, the
Conservatives average support is 36%, compared to 35.4% in a 10 poll
average in polls conducted through Tuesday. Labour’s support has held
steady, averaging 28.2% in these eve of election polls, matching its
previous 10 poll average, while the Liberal Democrats were down
fractionally in the five polls at 27%.

With the latest polls showing no dramatic last minute movement, the
assumption remains it will be a close call as to whether the
Conservatives can get to above the 325 seat mark which would give them
a clear majority.

Spread betting shows they are expected to fall a sliver
short. The odds on BetFair, for example, centre on the Conservatives
winning 320 seats.

The widely available uniform national swing models show the
Conservatives fall well short of an overall majority but more
sophisticated election models again show them coming very close to
outright victory. Latest projections under the UNS method show the
Conservatives around 50 seats short of an overall majority.

The fivethirtyeight.com model, widely feted for its accurate
predictions for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, predicts the
Conservatives will win 312 seats, just 14 seats short of a majority.

Plugging the 10-poll average into another non-UNS model, from
Charles Barry, which has been publicised on fivethirtyeight.com, shows
the Conservatives getting 301 seats and 308 based on the eve of
election average.

Michael Saunders, economist at Citi, highlights in a research note
the problems of extrapolating from national polls. The difficulties stem
from tactical voting, the likelihood of a bigger Conservative swing in
the key marginal seats than in national polls and the high proportion of
voters still saying they could changer their minds

Saunders says that while a Conservative-led hung parliament is the
most likely outcome, there is still a sizeable chance a Labour-led hung
parliament or a small Conservative majority, but little chance of a
“comfortable Conservative majority”.

Privately, Conservatives have talked about needing a 20-plus seat
majority to have a truly workable administration – any less and the
government is vulnerable to the whims of even a small rebel faction
within its ranks.

With the weather relatively good, and reports of plenty of early
activity at the polling booths, the turnout could be relatively high,
adding to the uncertainty.

For what its worth, the leading lights at the various polling
organisations have posted their own predictions of the outturn. Peter
Kellner at YouGov has Conservatives in a 300-310 range, Anthony Wells,
who hosts the popular ukpollingreport site concurs, while pollsters
Angus Reid put them in a 320 to 340 range.

The first siginificant results, from key Conservative target seats,
namely those above the 300-seat mark in terms of winnability, will not
start coming in until 0100 BST Friday (2400 GMT Thursday).

At that point the Gilt market will also reopen. Unless the exit
polls, out at 2200 BST, show a decisive swing in either direction it
will be well into Friday morning before it is known whether the UK is on
track for a majority Conservative government or not.

The following tables show the most recent national polls.

!End ! !Media ! ! ! !Conservative!
!Date of! !Outlet ! ! !Liberal !Lead Vs !
!Survey !Pollster! !Labour!Conservative!Democrat!Labour !
————————————————————————
05-May Populus Times 28 37 27 9
05-May YouGov Sun 28 35 28 7
05-May ComRes ITV/Indy 28 37 28 9
05-May ICM Guardin 28 36 26 8
05-May Opinium Express 27 35 26 8
04-May YouGov Sun 30 35 24 5
03-May ComRes ITV 29 37 26 8
03-May YouGov Sun 28 35 28 7
03-May Opinium Express 28 33 27 5
02-May YouGov Sun 28 34 29 6
———————————————————————–
10 poll average 28.2 35.4 26.9 7.2
High 30 37 29 9
Low 27 33 24 5
————————————————————————

–London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 email:ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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