London, Jan 30 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and events.
All times in GMT/ET format. * = prior day ET.
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Tuesday, Jan 31
Prior Median
0001/1901* Jan GfK Consumer Confidence Index -33.0 -32.0
UK consumer confidence is running just above record low levels. The
GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell to a 35-month low of -33 in December,
with every reading in the second half of 2011 at -30 or below.
The long run average in the GfK series, which extends back to 1974,
is -8 and the all time low -39. Analysts expect a negligible improvement
in January from December.
0900/0400 BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker’s book chapter
in “Investing in Change” published.
Tucker spearheads the BOE’s financial stability wing, and this work
will have no direct link to monetary policy.
0930/0430 BOE Dec Personal Lending
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Dec BOE Mortgage Approvals (000s) 52.85 54.0
0930/0430 UK Dec BOE Net Consumer Credit (Stg bln) 0.39 0.4
0930/0430 UK Dec BOE Net Secured Lending (Stg bln) 0.57 0.8
0930/0430 UK Jan BOE Bankstats
The BBA data, which cover the major British Banking Groups, showed
mortgage approvals rose 3.9% on the month, which would result in an
outturn a little under 55,000 if replicated in the BOE figures.
Analysts’ median forecast is for a slightly less rapid rise in
mortgage approvals. The big picture, however, remains that approvals are
running at low levels by historic standards, with house prices holding
close to flat in nominal terms.
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Wednesday, Feb 1
Prior Median
0700/0200 UK Jan Nationwide House Prices
0700/0200 UK Jan Nationwide House Prices (%m/m) -0.2 -0.2
0700/0200 UK Jan Nationwide House Prices (%y/y) 1.0 1.2
The major UK mortgage lenders have warned house prices will be flat
to down in 2012, and analysts expect another small monthly decline in
the Nationwide series.
The monthly outturns tend to be volatile, but an upside surprise
will do nothing to alter the widespread view UK house price inflation
is grinding to a halt.
Prior Median
0928/0428 UK Jan Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.8
UK manufacturing is expected to be running very close to flat on
the CIPS manufacturing series.
The CBI January monthly industrial trends survey, however, showed a
pick-up, with the total orders balance rising to -16 from -23 in
December, while the output volume balance rose to 15 from -8.
Analysts predict manufacturing will post a markedly stronger
performance in Q1 than in Q4.
1900/1400 Introductory remarks by BOE’s Paul
Tucker at book launch
A launch event linked to Tuesday’s publication. Again, monetary
policy is not on the agenda.
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Thursday, Feb 2
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Jan Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI 53.2 52.5
The December CIPS construction data showed the 12th consecutive
monthly expansion, with new business picking up.
The January data should show the sector continuing to expand,
although the expectation is the pace of growth will ease from January.
1400/0900 UK BOE MPC Adam Posen panellist at
TUC banking conference
The Monetary Policy Committee appearances this week are focussed on
things other than monetary policy.
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Friday, Feb 3
Prior Median
0928/0428 UK Jan Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI 54.0 53.2
The December Markit/CIPS PMI was puzzlingly strong, with the
headline index hitting a five-month high of 54.0.
Markit’s chief economist, Chris Williamson, said the Q4 CIPS
services data were “roughly consistent with the sector expanding by just
0.3-0.4% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.7% in the third quarter.”
The official Q4 GDP data came in a lot weaker than this. They
showed service sector output, which makes up 76% of GDP, was flat on the
quarter in Q4, with GDP as a whole contracting 0.2%.
Analysts expect the rate of growth in January to have eased in the
CIPS series, taking the view the December rate of expansion was
unrealistically high.
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: ukeditorial@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]