Key points on the Australian and New Zealand dollars from Westpac
In a one to three month horizon
AUD/USD:
0.7000-0.7200 from February to mid-April was finally punctured to the downside by Australia's weak Q1 CPI
- there has been limited follow-through
Australia's commodity price basket has rebounded sharply since early April
Rallies should be capped by the ongoing debate over RBA rate cut timing and nerves over US-China trade relations
probes of 0.69 possible in coming weeks. But we retain our baseline of 0.70 by June, with the RBA to hold steady until August, watching the unemployment rate.
NZD/USD:
Potential for further declines to the 0.6425-0.6525 area
NZD will remain weighed down by the RBNZ's easing bias
plus expected improvement in the US economy in the second half of 2019