–NSA Trade Bal with China -$19.3b, Japan -$4.8b, OPEC -$9.3b

By Joseph Plocek

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. April trade data suggest the external
sector could be a drag on growth as trade recovers further.

The April trade balance printed -$40.3 billion, with small offsets
in categories, slightly better than expected. This compared to -$40.0
billion in March after revisions.

April imports fell $0.8 billion, and categories were mixed.
Consumer goods were off $1.7 billion, and this included pharmaceuticals
-$918 million, offset by rising electronics and oil.

Exports fell $1 billion overall and included food at -$647 million
and pharmaceuticals at -$650 million. Exports of oil and supplies
gained, and civilian aircraft posted +$319 million.

April hit the highest deficit since December 2008, and is marked
by a rising non-oil deficit. At -$27.8 billion, the latter is the
highest since January 2009. Thus the data show continued recovery.

The data also reflect rising oil prices. Crude import costs
averaged $77.13 a barrel in April, the highest since October 2008, and
up 3.8% from March.

Unadjusted country balances included China at -$19.3 billion after
-$16.9 billion in March, Japan at -$4.8 billion after -$5.3 billion, and
OPEC at -$9.3 billion (its widest since October 2008) after -$9.1
billion.

The real trade balance was about 4.5% worse than its Q1 average, so
trade should cut into U.S. growth ahead.

Annual revisions for 1999-2009 incorporated late data, made
redistributions and corrections, and recomputed seasonal adjustments.
The full year’s trade balance now stands at -$374.9 billion in 2009
after -$698.8 billion in 2008.

The Commerce Department said the revisions did not change the
overall trend in trade. Revisions were 1% or less for each year’s data.
Some military and transportation carrier purchases of fuel, and equipment
exported under the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program, were
reclassified from services to goods, with no overall effect.

**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**

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