US DATA: Dec retail sales +0.1% overall, -0.2% ex auto, and flat ex auto
and gas, weaker than expected. But Oct-Nov levels were revised higher,
showing momentum. Q4 sales are up +7.9% SAAR, probably enough to assure
+3% real GDP growth. Dec sales were boosted by furniture +1.0%, bldg
mats +1.6%, healthcare +0.6%, clothing +0.7%, sporting goods +0.4%.
Autos & parts posted +1.5%. Only weakness was in electronics -3.9% and
food/bev stores -0.2%, as these appeared unable to overcome severe
seasonal adjustment factors. So bottom line is even with a weak-ish Dec
result the consumer appeared to have strength that should spill into Q4.
The 12m change in retail sales was +7.7% in 2011 (third best gain on
record after 1993 and 1999) vs +6.5% in 2010 and -7.2% in 2009,
illustrating economic recovery.