US DATA: Jan Hatizus, chief US econ at Goldman says while the boost
from the unseasonably warm weather has been substantial, they do not
expect a meaningful payback in Mar NFP report due to March being as warm
relative to Feb seasonal norms. However, GS does expect a “sizable
payback for the weather boost in April and May. Assuming a return to
normal temperatures in April, the model says that the drag should amount
to 77,000 in April and 34,000 in May. Together with the fading of the
inventory boost to GDP growth and the impact from higher oil prices,
this is likely to result in a weaker picture of US economic activity
than seen over the past few months.” On Thurs GS lifted their March NFP
forecast to +200K from +175K and they continue to expect a small drop in
the unemployment rate to 8.2% from 8.3% as well as 0.1% gain in average
hourly earnings.