US DATA: Nov trade bal -$38.3b (lowest deficit since Jan’10 and a
second surprise month) as imports +$1.1b but exports +$1.2b. In exports
civ aircraft +$420m and pharma +$981m were key. In imports, crude oil
+$1.9b (unit price +3.5%/bbl but quantity also gained) was offset by
-$427m autos and -$912m pharma. Services surplus of $12.9b was a record
as services imports fell $0.3b on lower transport/travel costs. Oct-Nov
real trade is showing an almost 10% improvement from the Q3 avg, enough
to add substantially (in area of 1-2 pts) to real GDP growth. NSA trade
bal by country: with China -$25.6b vs -$25.5b Oct as exports moved to
highest on record, Japan -$5.8b vs -$5.7b, OPEC -$7b vs -$5.7b. Asia and
oil remain problems.