US DATA: Oct trade bal -$43.5b, about as expected, vs -$44.2b in
the revised Sept total. Imports -$2.2b and exports -$1.5b (-$1.2b of
exports was nonmonetary gold after +$1.6b in Sept). Import drop was
almost all related to oil (-$1.9b or 86% of the total decline) as price
and volume of imported crude dropped; autos were -$615m but computers &
civ aircraft rose. NSA trade gap by country: China -$28.1b vs -$28.1b in
Sept, Japan -$6.2b vs -$5.2b, OPEC -$8.3b vs -$10.4b. China trade has
recovered – imports from China were a new record and exports to China
were a high since Dec’10 – as has Japan trade after the earthquake.
Europe was -$9.7b vs -$7.9b Sept, with both exports to and imports from
Europe higher on the month, in a sign that political problems are not
holding up trade. Real trade bal was -$44.2b in Oct vs -$46b Q3 avg, so
trade will add at least 0.2 or 0.3 pt to Q4 real growth.