US DATA: Oct trade bal printed a better than expected -$38.7b
(lowest since Jan and vs -$44.6b in Sept) as imports -$0.9b and exports
+$4.9b to a high since Aug’08. This is a second favorable monthly
report. In imports, -$2.3b crude oil (due to lower volumes) was partly
offset by +$1.3b consumer goods (pharma, apparel, gems, toys). Oct oil
deficit was -$19.1b, lowest since -$18b in Oct’09 so there might be some
residual seasonality in the data. Exports gain was broad-based and
reflected +$1.6b oil-related, +$735m foods to new record levels, +$430m
autos, and gains in eqpt. NSA trade bal by country: with China -$25.5b
vs -$27.8b Sept, Japan -$5.7b vs -$5b, OPEC -$5.7b vs -$8.9b. Shows Asia
and oil remain problems. Oct real goods trade bal stands $4.6b narrower
than the Q3 avg, suggesting perhaps a 0.5pt boost to GDP if sustained
(more likely the booost will be less as Nov trade bal retraces).