By Utta Von Nuremburg

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Ahead of Friday’s much anticipated non-farm
payrolls data, initial jobless claims Thursday morning are expected to
rise by 2,000 to 455,000 for the week ending October 2, according to a
survey of economists by Market News International.

The claims report for the week of the 18th, the survey week used in
the monthly report, had shown a 35,000 decline in claims from a month
earlier, an improvement which brought that week’s level to 469,000.

Last week claims dropped 16,000 from that upwardly revised 469,000
in the previous report. The four-week moving average for initial jobless
claims will register at 457,500, if expectations are met and if there
were no revisions in the previous three weeks.

Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial, forecasts
initial jobless claims for the week ending October 2, to fall by 3,000
to 450,000. “We expect initial claims to remain somewhat steady and
become moderately lower towards the end of the year. Companies are in an
equilibrium period right now as demand appears to be picking up”, Price
says in a telephone interview.

According to the September ADP National Employment Report — which
comes two days before the Department of Labor’s non-farm payrolls report
and includes government workers — private sector employment
unexpectedly plummeted by 39,000, after economists had anticipated a
gain of 20,000.

In addition, the estimated change of employment data from July to
August was upwardly adjusted to reflect an increase of 10,000 from an
initially reported drop of 10,000.

The report stated that, “The September decline in employment
followed seven monthly increases from February through August. However,
over those seven months, the average monthly gain in employment was
34,000. There simply is no momentum in employment.”

Of note, September’s ADP Report estimates that jobs in the
service-sector rose by 6,000, while jobs in construction dropped by
28,000 and jobs in manufacturing fell by 17,000.

The median average — based on expectations by 15 economists — is
for continuing claims to drop to 4,450,000 from the previous 4,456,000.

The 4-week moving average for continuing claims will register at
4,496,000, if expectations are met, again, if there were no revisions in
the previous three weeks.

–Utta Von Nuremburg is a report for Need To Know News in Washington

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]