US DATA: Q2 real GDP +1.5% and real final sales +1.2%, both showing
slower growth as expected as consumer spending decelerated. Commerce
Dept assumed higher net inventory and narrower trade gap in missing June
data. In annual revs, 2010-11 GDP levels were revised lower & 2008-11
growth cut; nonres fixed inv was lowered, S&L govt hiked. 2011 growth
was rev up – mainly in Q4 and 1/2 the rev was due to a deflator change.
This shows a slower growth phase, suggesting additional slack.
GDP Components: Q1:11 Q2 Q3 Q4:11 Q1:12 Q2:12
Real growth +0.1% +2.5% +1.3% +4.1% +2.0% +1.5%
Real final sales +0.6 +2.4 +2.3 +1.5 +2.4 +1.2
PCE +3.1 +1.0 +1.7 +2.0 +2.4 +1.5
Nonres fixed invest -1.3 +14.5 +19.0 +9.5 +7.5 +5.3
Res fixed invest -1.4 +4.1 +1.4 +12.1 +20.5 +9.7
Net Exprt Contrib add 0.03 add 0.54 add 0.02 cut 0.64 add 0.06 cut 0.31
Inventory Contrib cut 0.54 add 0.01 cut 1.07 add 2.53 cut 0.39 add 0.32