By Brai Odion-Esene

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Given the expectation that global crude oil
consumption will grow at a slower pace next year, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration Tuesday raised its forecasts only slightly
for OPEC oil export revenues this year and in 2011.

Still, given that the EIA believes gradual tightening in global oil
markets will continue to support world oil prices, the agency projects
— based on projections from its December Short-Term Energy Outlook —
that nominal OPEC net oil export revenues in 2010 will be $750 billion
vs. $748 billion estimated in last month’s report.

The cartel’s expected revenue for 2011 was also revised up
slightly, to $847 billion from the $840 billion estimated in November.
OPEC oil ministers are set to meet in Quito, Ecuador Dec. 11, and are
widely expected to keep current crude production quotas in place.

According to the EIA, OPEC from January to December last year
earned $571 billion in net oil export revenues, a decline of 41% from
2008. From January to October, it estimated nominal net oil export
revenues for OPEC to be $680 billion.

Of the earnings predicted for OPEC this year, Saudi Arabia is
expected to have the largest share. So far in 2010, the EIA projects the
nominal oil exports revenues of OPEC’s dominant member to be $184
billion.

In its short-term outlook, the EIA projected world liquid fuels
consumption increased by 2 million barrels per day in 2010, before
slowing to 1.4 million b/d in 2011.

The EIA said non-OECD regions, especially China, the Middle East,
and Brazil, represent most of the expected growth in world oil
consumption next year. Within the OECD, only the United States is
expected to show any significant growth in consumption volume in 2011 at
about 0.2 million b/d.

The EIA expects that OPEC crude oil production will increase by 0.3
million b/d and 0.4 million b/d in 2010 and 2011, respectively, “to
accommodate increasing world oil consumption.”

The information arm of the U.S. Department of Energy noted that
while overall commercial oil inventories in the OECD nations remain
high, stock levels are unevenly distributed with some regions
experiencing tightness in recent months.

“Both floating and reported on-shore inventories have been
declining, and EIA believes that the projected continued reduction in
OECD stocks over the forecast period should lend support to firming oil
prices,” it said.

As a result, the EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate
crude oil to average about $84 per barrel this winter (October 1 to
March 31), more than $6 higher than the average price last winter.
Projected WTI prices are then projected to rise to $89 per barrel by the
end of 2011, a $2 per barrel increase from last month’s Outlook, “as
U.S. and global economic conditions improve.”

Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $86 per
barrel in 2011.

OPEC Net Oil Export Revenues

Country Nominal ($B)

2009 2010 2011 Jan-Nov 2010

Algeria $42 NA NA $50
Angola $42 NA NA $50
Ecuador $6 NA NA $6
Iran $53 NA NA $64
Iraq $38 NA NA $43
Kuwait $45 NA NA $52
Libya $34 NA NA $39
Nigeria $46 NA NA $60
Qatar $24 NA NA $33
Saudi Arabia $153 NA NA $164
UAE $53 NA NA $61
Venezuela $33 NA NA $37
OPEC $571 $750 $847 $680

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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