Nomura on the JOLTS data due for release Tuesday US time

  • Job openings decreased slightly in October, driven by a drop in wholesale trade vacancies.
  • However, the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers, a common measure of labor market tightness, ticked up to 0.92, the highest reading in the JOLTS survey. By this metric, the labor market tightened significantly during 2017 with October marking the highest 10-month increase since July 2015.
  • The quits rate for private industries was unchanged at 2.4% as workers remain confident in their outside employment options. We expect labor demand to remain elevated as the late-cycle expansion continues.