Change in nonfarm payroll for July is expected to rise by 165K US
The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT and is expected to show a positive non farm payroll number for the 106 consecutive month (going back to September 30, 2010).
Last month the non-farm payroll added 224K jobs. The high for the calendar year was 311K in January. The low was at 33 in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% from a record low of 3.6% in May.
What is expected for tomorrow:
- Non Farm payroll is expected to rise by 165K. The high estimate is 224K, while the low is at 74K
- unemployment rate is expected to dip back to the all time low at 3.6% versus 3.7% last month
- average hourly earnings MoM is expected to rise by 0.2%. That is unchanged from last month's gain.
- Average hourly earnings YoY is expected to rise by 3.1% unchanged from June
- average weekly hours 34.4 versus 34.4 last month
- the labor force participation rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 62.9%
- manufacturing payrolls is expected to rise by 5K vs 17K last month
- Change in private payrolls (ex government) is expected to rise by 165k vs 191K last month.
- Underemployment rate last month came in at 7.2%.
What are some of the other employment statistics already released saying?
Initial jobless claims have seen the 4 week moving average move down over the last 5 weeks from 222K to 211.5. That is stronger.
The ISM manufacturing employment component piece moved to 51.7 in the current month. That is the lowest reading since November 2016. The 3 month moving average has been trending lower since peaking recently in September 2018 at 57.6. The current averages at 53.3.
The ADP employment estimate of private payroll is forecasting a gain of 155.6K. That is up from 112k in June. Note that the private payroll data from the Labor Department was much higher at 191K (vs 112K from ADP). Does it lead to a revision? There can be disparities from the two reports, so not necessarily.
Challenge Job cuts vs last year was up 43.2% which is certainly higher than recent years, but it is still lower than some of the peaks over the last year.
