–Previous Two Weeks’ Surge Dismissed as ‘Technical Factors’

By Denny Gulino and Brai Odion-Esene

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits dropped 19,000 to a below-expectations 457,000 in the June 19
week and the previous two weeks’ surge was dismissed as the result of
“technical factors” including seasonal adjustment misses, the U.S. Labor
Department reported Thursday morning.

The previous week’s claims figure was revised up to 476,000.
Unadjusted claims for the week also dropped, by 23,066 to 421.104.

Continuing claims in the June 12 week dropped 45,000 to 4.548
million. In a survey week comparison, continuing claims are down
87,000.

A Labor analyst said the surge in the previous two weeks was
apparently due to technical factors relating to the way new claims were
distributed over the holiday and post-holiday weeks and to a pattern
that departed from what the seasonal factors were prepared for. He
illustrated with a chart that showed the oscillations of the last few
weeks amounting to a leveling off of the preceding downward trend, not a
rebound, with the latest week pointing back down.

The latest week’s seasonal factors expected a 1.3% decline, adrop
of 5,700, and isntead got a 5.2% decline, a drop of 23,000, he said. One
state, Hawaii, was estimated and the rest, he said, was “fairly
straightforward.”

The previous week’s claims were revised up to 476,000 from 472,000.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average
slipped 1,500 to 462,750.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate edged back down a
tenth to 3.5% in the June 12 while the unadjusted insured unemployment
rate also went down a tenth to 3.3%.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that there were 71,018 fewer unadjusted
Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims in the June 5 week,
lowering that category to 4,733,012. Extended benefits claims rose by
116,432 to 523,236 not seasonally adjusted.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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