–Labor Analyst Said No Comments From States Regarding Auto Shutdowns
–Five States Estimated In Shorter Reporting Week
–Continuing Claims -224k To 4.413 Mln In June 26 Week

By Kevin Kastner and Ian McKendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits fell 21,000 to 454,000 in the July 3 week, the lowest level
since the May 8 week, as unadjusted claims rose less than seasonal
factors expected, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday morning.

The latest week’s seasonal factors expected a 10.0% rise, or about
44,000 claims. Unadjusted claims instead rose only 5.1%, or 22,560
claims to a level of 463,560. Unadjusted claims stood at 581,145 in the
comparable week a year earlier.

A Labor Department analyst said that there were no states comments
on any auto impact in this week’s data.

Auto plants usually conduct their annual retooling shutdowns in
July, resulting in large unadjusted initial claims increases that
seasonal factors attempt to offset. However, General Motors announced
that they are postponing their usual shutdown this year, which could
mean smaller unadjusted gains and, therefore, declines in seasonally
adjusted levels early in the month.

The analyst also noted that there were five states estimated for
the July 3 data, which was likely due to the Monday holiday shortening
the reporting period. There states — Hawaii, the Virgin Islands, and
Washington, DC — were fully estimated by the Labor Department. Two
other states — California and Virginia — submitted estimates
themselves.

The median estimate in a Market News International survey was for a
decline in initial claims to a 465,000 level. The previous week’s claims
figure was revised up to 475,000 from the originally reported 472,000.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average fell
1,250 to 466,000 in July 3 week.

Continuing claims in the June 26 week plunged 224,000 to 4.413
million, the lowest level since the November 22, 2008 week, when they
stood at 4.142 million.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in
the June 26 week from 3.6% in the previous week, and was down sharply
from the 4.9% rate in the comparable week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that there were 367,948 less unadjusted
Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims in the June 19 week,
pulling that category down to 4,147,551. Extended benefits claims rose
by 24,751 to 429,816 not seasonally adjusted.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]