–Manufacturing Layoffs Fewer Than Anticipated by the Seasonal Factors

By Ian Mckendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits decreased 29,000 to 429,000 in the July 10 week after seasonal
adjustment reflecting a lag in the usual factory layoffs this time of
year, according to data released by the U.S. Labor Department Thursday
morning.

The level was below the 445,000 level expected in a Market News
International survey of economists.

A Labor analyst said that seasonal adjustment factors expected an
increase of 17.2%, about 80,000 claims, due to typical manufacturing
shutdowns this time of year, compared with the actual outcome of a 9.6%
increase in unadjusted claims. But changing patterns of manufacturing
industry shutdowns, which the analyst said is “not just a GM thing,” are
not being anticipated by the adjustment factors based on past years. He
was referring to GM’s recalibration of seasonal layoffs.

As a level, unadjusted claims rose 44,855 to 513,347 in the July
10 week, below the 671,242 level in the comparable week a year earlier.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week average fell 11,750
to 455,250.

In the July 3 week, continuing claims increased by 247,000 to 4.681
million.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate jumped two tenths
to 3.7% in the July 3 week, and was 4.7% a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that there were 236,162 fewer unadjusted
Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims in the June 26 week,
bringing that category to 3,911,389. Extended benefits claims
fell by 18,580 to 409,442 not seasonally adjusted. Congressional
leadership plans to try again for another round of extended benefits,
perhaps voting as soon as next week.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]