Inflation data due from the US at 1230GMT. Headline CPI expected at 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
- 1.7% y/y (prior 1.6%
CPI excluding food and energy expected 0.2%, prior 0.3% m/m
- 2.1% expected, 2.1% prior y/y
Couple of quick previews.
Scotia:
- expected to reveal stable headline CPI at 1.7% y/y and unchanged core at 2.1% y/y
- The fact that core CPI tends to overshoot core PCE inflation by several tenths of a percentage point will mitigate the relevance of the release particularly in the context of the Fed's guidance that it views its 2% inflation target as a symmetrical goal, thus implying tolerance toward overshooting
Deutsche Bank expecting lower than consensus:
- expect +0.13% m/m
- mainly reflecting some unwind of the drivers that drove the strong reading in June
- It's worth noting that markets are still pricing in 63bps of cuts by the Fed this year so it'll be interesting to see if this data makes much of a dent in that