July existing home sales data

  • Prior was 5.38m

  • Fourth straight month of declines for the first time since 2013

  • Existing home sales down 1.5% y/y

  • Existing home sales -0.7% m/m vs +0.4% expected

  • Median price +4.5% y/y

  • Inventory at 4.3 months

The sluggishness in US housing this year has been the biggest economic surprise in my eyes. The NAR talks about a shortage of inventory and that's mostly true but inventories were flat compared to last July.

It's a combination of things coming together. Inventories are the biggest one but building costs due to tariffs and labor are part of the story.

Ultimately, I think US housing has a long way to run higher but the timing is uncertain.