Highlights of the Fed's personal consumption expenditure report for July 2021
- PCE core MoM +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior MoM +0.4%
- Core PCE +3.6% y/y vs +3.6% expected
- Prior was 3.5% y/y (revised to +3.6%)
- Headline PCE 4.2% y/y vs +4.0% prior
- Deflator MoM +0.4% vs +0.5% prior
- Full report
Consumer spending and income for June:
- Personal income +1.1% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.1%
- Personal spending -0.1% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +1.0%
- Real personal spending +0.3% vs +0.5% prior
The flat core y/y reading is a sign that prices are beginning to crest. The monthly rises of 0.3% in core and 0.4% in headline inflation are also decelerations, though still well-above a 2% pace.
Details:
- Goods +5.4% vs +5.2% prior
- Durable goods +7.0% vs +7.2% prior
- Services +3.5% vs +3.4% prior
- Energy +23.6% vs +24.2% prior
- Food +2.4% vs +0.9% prior
Food inflation rose 0.6% in July after a 0.8% bump in June
On the spending side, it fell 1.6% m/m on goods but rose 0.6% on services on the shift to in-person reopening.