Highlights of the June 2019 personal income and spending report:
- Prior was 1.6%
- PCE core MoM +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Prior MoM +0.2%
- Deflator YoY +1.4% vs 1.5% expected
- Prior deflator YoY 1.6%
- Deflator MoM +0.1% vs +0.1% expected
- Prior MoM deflator +0.2% (revised to +0.1%)
Consumers spending and income for June:
- Personal income +0.4% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.5% (revised to +0.4%)
- Personal spending +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
- Real personal spending +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
The PCE data is the Fed's preferred inflation measure and it continues to show inflation below target on core and headline measures. There are no big surprises here but the misses on year-over-year core and headline inflation will firm up some views at the FOMC that something needs to be done to boost inflation expectations.
Core y/y: