This week closes off most of the main manufacturing reports for Q3 and it's not looking good
Here's the state of the great US machine after the Dallas numbers
We get an early look at the big ISM report for Sep on Thursday. The smaller ISM Milwaukee and Chicago PMI fall on Wednesday
Manufacturing makes up around 12.0% of GDP with another 5.5% in non-durables
Although it's not a huge part of GDP the domestic effects on jobs and wages are very notable. The ISM is very close to contraction while the regionals are all looking quite ugly, and that could start feeding through to the jobs numbers. If the labour market starts to flatten before the Fed hikes, that's going to put them in a very awkward position. It's going to make the data this week very important for the October FOMC, not that it wasn't already.
At the moment the Fed already look late in raising and their window could be even smaller by COB Friday
