The final look at fourth quarter 2018 growth
- Second reading was +2.6%
- Personal consumption +2.5% vs +2.6% expected (and 2.8% in the 2nd reading)
- Q4 y/y GDP 3.0% vs 3.1% prior
- Growth for all of 2018 was 2.9%
- Q4 GDP ex-motor vehicles +2.1% vs +2.6% prior
- Exports +1.8% vs +1.6% initially
- Imports +2.0% vs +2.7% initially
- Inventory changed adds 0.11 pp to GDP
- Corporate profits after tax in 2018 +16.2%
- Business investment +5.4% vs +6.2% initially
- Home investment -4.7% vs -3.5% initially
Inflation:
- PCE core q/q +1.7% vs +1.7% expected
- GDP price index +1.8% vs +1.8% expected
- Final GDP deflator +1.9% vs +1.8% exp
Trade was less of a drag than anticipated but consumption wasn't as strong.
From former Deutsche Bank economist Joe Lavorgna: "GDP data show relatively large back to back inventory readings. With production down this quarter relative to last, it seems to me that an unwinding of stockpiles will be a big drag on the economy."
