US Retail sales data for May is due Tuesday, auto sales will be a drag

Data is coming up on 15 June 2021 at 1230GMT, retail sales the focus (NY Fed Manufacturing index for June also).

The headline is expected to be dragged down because of weak auto sales due to the lack of supply. Excluding auto sales are seen as gaining m/m

Via Scotia, snippet from their preview:

• Total sales may dip by around -½% m/m while sales ex-autos post a mild gain of a comparable magnitude.
• Vehicle sales carry about a one-fifth weight and should drag on the headline given we know that new vehicle sales were down 8.2% m/m in May partly due to chip shortages while auto prices in CPI were up by 1.6% m/m.
• The other ~70% of retail sales that are not made up of gas and new vehicle sales could be more resilient on reopening effects.