US retail sales data overnight came in flat, well below expectations

Adam and Ryan had the data here and here

Economists and analysts reacted with pretty widespread disappointment ... probably understandably so.

But ... here is an alternative view.

  • "Expect to read much commentary to the effect that these retail numbers mean people aren't going to spend their windfall from the drop in gasoline prices, but it is far too early to make that judgement
  • The big rollover in gas prices didn't start until November, with the biggest drop in prices in January; typically, it takes six or seven months for shifts in gas prices to filter into spending
  • We remain confident that late spring and summer will see consumption surging, but after this soft start to Q2 we have to expect a sub-3% gain for the current quarter."

That's from Pantheon Economics

What say the people of ForexLive?