By Kevin Kastner
WASHINGTON, December 2 (MNI) – The level of initial jobless claims
rebounded in the November 27 week, as seasonal adjustment factors
expected a larger unadjusted decrease in the Thanksgiving week. Claims
remain on their slight downward trend, with the four-week moving average
at the lowest level in over two years. However, the expiration of
benefits is a key factor in the decline.
Domestic motor vehicle sales were down slightly in November from
October, though the seasonally adjusted annual rate was unchanged at 9.1
million. Dealers discounting to clear out 2010 models appears to have
boosted sales in both months compared to September.
Manufacturing growth slowed modestly in November, with the ISM data
pointing to slower new orders, production, and employment growth than in
the previous month. Still, the data point to expansion in the sector,
with most of the regional data indicating faster growth in areas.
Construction spending was lifted by home remodeling in October,
while new home building and private nonresidential building down in the
month.
Nonfarm productivity was revised up in the third quarter due to
stronger output growth, offset by faster growth in hours worked than
previously estimate. Unit labor costs were unrevised, as an upward
adjustment in compensation offset the stronger productivity estimate.
Consumer confidence rose solidly in November to its highest level
since June, with gains in both the current conditions and future
expectations readings. The assessment of employment conditions was
slightly better than in October, but was still very bleak. Buying plans
were up for autos, but down for homes and appliances.
—
Weekly Jobless Claims for week of November 27
Thursday, December 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses 27-Nov 20-Nov 13-Nov
Jobless claims 425k 395k to 440k 5 436k 410k 441k
Comments: Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 436,000 in Nov 27
holiday week, above the 425,000 level expected following a dip in the
prior week. The Labor Department analyst said seasonal factors expected
a 16.9% drop, or about 78,698, in unadjusted claims due to the 4-day,
and in some cases 3-day, business week. Actual unadjusted claims fell
only 11.7%, or 54,196, to 410,617. Despite the increase, the 4-week
moving average fell 5,750 to 431,000, the lowest level since the August
2, 2008 week. Continuing claims rose 53,000 to 4.270 million in November
20 week.
—
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for November (mln units, saar)
Wednesday, December 1 Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Dom Sales 8.9m 8.7m to 9.1m 5 9.1m 9.1m 8.6m
Comments: Domestic-made light vehicle sales held steady at a 9.1
million seasonally adjusted annual rate in November, with the pace of
car sales up slightly and the pace of light truck sales down slightly.
Unadjusted sales were actually lower in November than October due to the
short month and seasonal issues, though the average daily selling rate
was up for both cars and light trucks.
—
Construction Spending for October (percent change)
Wednesday, December 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
Construction -0.4% -0.8% to +0.4% 8 +0.7% +0.7% -0.9%
Comments: October construction spending rose 0.7%, well above the
0.4% decline expected. There were mixed revisions to the previous two
months. Private residential construction jumped 2.5% in October, though
1-family construction fell 1.2%. Multi-family home building rose 3.2%.
An MNI calculation shows private residential construction excluding new
home building rose 6.2% in October, a second consecutive large gain that
suggests remodeling activity remained solid. Private nonresidential
construction fell 0.7% on declines in almost every category. Public
construction rose 0.4%, with federal spending at a record high.
—
ISM Manufacturing Index for November
Wednesday, December 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Mfg ISM 56.7 55.5 to 57.5 10 56.6 56.9 54.4
Comments: The ISM manufacturing index fell slightly to a reading of
56.6 in November, with declines in the readings for new orders,
production, prices paid, and employment. The data still point to steady
growth that is marginally faster than a year earlier.
—
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)
Wednesday, December 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses 3Q10r 3Q10p 2Q10
Productivity +2.4% +1.9% to +2.6% 11 +2.3% +1.9% -1.8%
Unit Labr Cost Flat -0.9% to +0.1% 10 -0.1% -0.1% +4.9%
Comments: Third quarter nonfarm productivity was revised up to a
2.3% rise on an upward adjustment to output, offset by a modest upward
revision to hours worked. Unit labor costs were unrevised at a 0.1%
decline, as an upward revision to compensation offset the upward
revision to productivity.
—
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for November (index)
Tuesday, November 30 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Confidence 52.0 51.0 to 60.0 8 54.1 49.9 48.6
Comments: The index of consumer confidence rose sharply in
November, with gains in both the present situation and expectations
readings. The reading of jobs plentiful rose, but so did the reading of
jobs hard to get. The ratio between the two was slightly smaller than in
October and a year ago, but was still very large. Buying plans were up
for autos, but down for both homes and major appliances.
—
Chicago Purchasers Index for November (index)
Tuesday, November 30 at 9:45 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Chicago PMI 60.0 58.0 to 62.1 9 62.5 60.6 60.4
Comments: The Chicago PMI rose to a reading of 62.5 in November,
though the components were mixed. The production, new orders, and
employment readings were up, but there were declines in the readings for
supplier deliveries and inventories. In general, the data point to solid
expansion for the regional manufacturing sector in the month.
—
New Home Sales for October (annual rate)
Wednesday, November 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
New Homes 310k 300k to 335k 20 283k 308k 275k
Comments: October new home sales fell 8.1% to a 283,000 SAAR, well
below the 310,000 rate expected and following mixed revisions to the
previous two months. Sales were down sharply in the Northeast, Midwest,
and West regions, but up 3.1% in the large South region. The supply of
new homes for sale fell 0.5% to 202,000, the lowest since June 1968. As
a result of the large sales drop, however, the months supply rebounded
to 8.6 months at the current sales pace from 7.9 months in September.
The median sales price fell 13.9% to $194,900 in October, the lowest
since October 2003.
—
Reuters/University of Michigan Survey for November (final)
Wednesday, November 24 at 9:55 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10f Nov10p Oct10
Consumer Sent 69.5 69.0 to 71.0 16 71.6 69.3 67.7
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index was revised up to a reading
of 71.6 in November from the 69.3 preliminary reading. There were sharp
upward revision to both the current conditions and expectations
readings. The index remained above the 67.7 reading for October.
—
Durable Goods Orders for October (percent change)
Wednesday, November 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
New Orders -0.1% -2.7% to +3.0% 20 -3.3% +5.0% -0.8%
Comments: Durable goods orders fell 3.3% in October, with an
expected pullback in transportation orders supplemented by declines in
every major new orders category. Still, the October decline did not
quite erase the entire September gain. Durables shipments fell 0.9% in
October, with declines in nondefense capital goods both including and
excluding aircraft orders. Both unfilled orders and inventories were up
in the month.
** Market News International Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$]