The market is pricing in a high chance of a hike
The OIS market is now pricing in a 58% chance that the Bank of Canada hikes interest rates on July 12. That's up from 5% just two weeks ago.
The shift came after deputy Wilkins hinted at higher rates in the future but after today's stronger retail sales data, the market is saying the future is now.
I disagree and think that all that's coming in July is a light, conditional but clear hawkish bias.
In any case, the Canadian dollar is red hot and it's being lifted by a 75-cent rebound in crude prices today to $43.26. That nearly erases the $1.00 fall on Wednesday.
As for USD/CAD, it peaked just above the 200-dma yesterday but has crashed down to more than 115 pips today to 1.3217. There hasn't been a close below 1.3200 since February but that was when oil was much stronger.
On an intraday basis, 1.3200 and 1.3191 (this week's low) are the levels to watch, followed by the June low of 1.3165.