The USDCAD – which was the strongest of pairs coming into the day – was not immune to the USD selling. For this pair, the price broke back below the 38.2% of the move up from the October 9 low (see chart below) and briefly below the 50% of the move up from the same low level. The pair did find support in this area and may have also been helped by the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart, but I think it may have been more luck as the market traders were more interested in getting out at that trading moment).
In any case the market has quieted down and the price is settling above the 38.2% and the “old” year high at the 1.1269 area. This will be the risk defining level for the pair in trading now. If the price can stay above, good for continuation of the recent gains. If the price dips back below, I would think that traders might not like what they see. That is what this chart is saying. What about another chart? What is the 5 minute intraday chart saying?
The USDCAD hourly charts defines support at the 1.1268 area.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, there is a little concern about the upside. The correction off the low did find sellers against the 200 hour MA (see green line in the chart below at 1.1332 currently).
With that vision, there is a mini battle going on between support buyers below at the 1.1269 level (the bulls) and the 200 bar MA above at the 1.1332. The price is between the two levels, so there is no real trade. Overall, the move above the old high is leaning me more toward the buy side. Canada Existing Home Sales were not too great and the oil situation may be more of a concern, especially if Ebola fears increase (and people stop flying). That may be an influence as the situation becomes more clear.
USDCAD on the 5 minute shows resistance at the 200 bar MA.