USD/CHF, like USD/JPY, is showing a total inability to bounce and the bears might be about to get a fresh shot of momentum if the market breaks below 1.0200. I’m hearing slightly conflicting reports; firstly that there are very large stops starting just below 1.0220 and secondly that 1.0200 is a major option level that will be defended by one bank in particular.
Once these major option levels break down, the selling can be really significant and as this is happening in a major downtrend where the flows are generally CHF-positive anyway, a break below 1.0200 could see the market fall below 1.0000 in a matter of hours. The overnight low was 1.0224 so it looks like there will be buying ahead of 1.0220 but the bounce has been negligible so watch out for another test (although I think a break is unlikely during Asia).