20 pips. That is all the USJPY could muster as low to high trading range today. Pathetic. That is with the pair sitting near two month lows. Not a push to the downside, nor corrective push to the upside. Looking at the daily chart above, the 78.28 level needs to be overtaken (and the price stay above), in order to start and think about the topside. That level was a high ceiling going back to November, December and January of 2011/12 before breaking higher in February of this year.
It is as simple as “get above there and stay above and we can talk about going higher”
If it cannot get above that level, the best you can say is the pair took some hits from weak Flash PMI, weak Richmond Fed yesterday and weak New Home Sales today and did not go down like it usually does. In other words, bulls and bears were both disappointed today. The other thing you can say is the market is so non-trending that keeping an eye for a trend should be considered. So keep an eye out for momentum on a break (higher or lower).
Anyway, if I were to play Rock, Paper, Scisssors, the failure to go higher is worse than the failure to go down. After all, the burden of proof is on the bulls to push this market higher. The shorts are happy with it consolidating (no gain but no pain either).
Looking at the hourly chart, the 100 hour MA is moving toward the current resistance level at 78.28. It currently is at 78.32 and inching down. I guess the price would need to get above this MA to encourage any buyers (or sellers to cover).
On the downside, the low from today at 78.06 may attract dip buyers. Below that 77.94 and the June low at 77.65 are the obvious next targets (absent a move higher). Below that, look for 77.48 area.
A break higher (above 78.28) will look toward 78.60, which was a NY high from July 20 and near the 200 hour MA (green line). A move above the 200 hour MA has 78.61, 78.94 adn 79.18 as the next upside targets.
Do you do anything at the current level of 78.17. Flip a coin, but the only reason to buy would because the price is low. The buyers have not proved anything else to me at least.
