I feel we are about to enter a period of very high volatility and the USD may be the big loser. A couple of the big US investment houses have been buying JPY crosses and straight EUR, GBP and AUD against the USD for the entire week. They have been buying in bulk and I don’t know if they know something that we don’t, but there are certainly some big plays underway.
I believe that the noises coming out of China must be at least listened to. The US has lived way beyond its’ means for the last 30 years. If the reserve-currency status of the USD is now called into question, the USD will fall into a hole from which it will take years to emerge.
Short term technical levels which might give a clue to further USD weakness are 1.1160 in USD/CHF and 1.4610 in cable.
I am short the USD, primarily against the AUD, and I have added to this position today.