We know US Q4 GDP was soft, but Q1 2016 was probably weak too

Two bad quarters isn't a blip

The first reading on US fourth quarter growth is due on Friday and the consensus was been steadily chopped down to the current 0.8% consensus. Some even forecast that it was flat.

Inventories and certain blips can make the economy look weaker than it is and that's probably what the Fed sees but when it's sustained, it's time for worry.

Deutsche Bank is out with a note forecasting just 1.5% growth in Q1 2016 and they now say that may be too high. They say a revision lower is likely because of less capex in the energy sector.

Looking back, they say that soft capex spending likely cut 55 basis points from US GDP in the first three quarters of 2015.

It's as if the only ones who don't know the US economy is sluggish are on the FOMC.

h/t @ReutersJamie.