Comments in a note today from Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans:
We have consistently argued that the case has already been made for a second rate cut to follow the February move
Since the March meeting we have argued that the cash rate is certain to be eased by 0.25% in the April/May "window" while retaining an "April bias"
We are sticking with that April view while recognising that the Bank could easily defer the rate cut decision until May
ollowing the February cut the Bank gave no guidance about future rate moves although we were comfortable to stick with our original February/March call
In the event the board held rates steady in March while adopting a very strong easing bias ,"it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being"
Our count is that "for the time being " has only been used in eight statements since January 2009 and on six of those occasions the Bank moved rates at the next meeting while it moved at the following meeting on the other two occasions
On that basis a strong case can be made for an April move
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There is a lot more in the note, but the gist of it Wpac are expecting a cut next week 9bolding is mine):
For now, we are comfortable to continue to expect a rate cut next week of 0.25% to be followed by a period of stability marked by a clear easing bias
That bias will be maintained until the Bank gets a more accurateinsight into the sustainability of its current 3.5% forecast forgrowth in 2016
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The RBA meeting is next Tuesday, April 7