From Westpac in New Zealand morning note
Summary and any bolding is mine:
AUD/USD 1-3 month:
- Multi-month we expect the US dollar uptrend to push AUD/USD lower, fuelled by a tightening Fed and weak commodity prices
- The technical head-and-shoulders break in early Jan signals 0.67
- Decent economic data and strong M&A inflows should see it outperform other commodity currencies, barring a further meltdown in global sentiment
NZD/USD 1-3 month:
- Multi-month, we expect to see NZD/USD lower towards 0.62 as the divergent monetary policies of the Fed and RBNZ play out
AUD/NZD 1-3 month:
- We expect the RBA to remain on hold for some time, but the RBNZ to ease again later this year after evidence of persistently low inflation emerges.
- Expected RBA vs RBNZ direction, plus strong M&A flow into the AUD, favours AUD/NZD upside over the next few months to beyond 1.10.