Some highlights for the week

The trade dispute will continue to be a lightening rod, but the markets have become accustomed to the headlines. China's stock market/economy (perhaps) seems to be taking the news more negatively. The US is weathering better with fits of little panics, followed by rebounds. The latest is the US is proposing additional tariffs of 25% tariffs on $200B. China said they would targeting an additional $60B. Neither side seems to be backing down. The Yuan fell to a 14 month low vs the US on Friday. The lower yuan is starting to be another reason the Trump administration is proposing even higher tariffs as they feel China is devaluing their currency to offset the US tariffs. Trade wars can be fought on different battle fields.

Other events on tap this week include:

Wednesday:

  • China trade balance. The expectation is expected to come in at $39.05B vs $41.47 last month. Exports +10%. Imports +17%.
  • RBA Rate Decision. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.5%
  • New Zealand quarterly inflation expectations. Last at 2.0%

Thursday:

  • RBNZ rata decision and press conference. No change expected (1.75%)
  • US PPI final demand is expected to rise by 0.2% vs 0.3% last. YoY is expected to rise by 3.4% Ex food and energy is expected to rise 0.3%. YoY 2.8%

Friday:

  • UK GDP is expected to rise by 0.2% vs 0.3% last. Preliminary QoQ GDP is expected to rise by 0.4%. YoY is expected to rise by 1.3% vs 1.2% last.
  • UK Manufacturing Production is expected to rise 0.3% vs 0.4% last
  • Canada employment change is expected to rise by 19.0K vs 31.8K last month. The unemplyoyment rate is expected to dip to 5.9% from 6.0%
  • US CPI for July is expected to rise by 0.2% and 2.9% YoY (vs 0.1% and 2.9% respectively. Ex food and energy is expected to increase by 0.2% and 2.3% respectively.

Earnings season is winding down. Some of the earnings this week include:

Monday: Softbank, Marriott, Etsy, Hertz

Tuesday: Disney, Papa Johns, Snap Inc.

Wednesday: 21st Century Fox, NY Times, CVS, Yelp

Thursday: Dropbox, adidas, Viacom