More a heads up than a preview, this via Nomura:
We expect China's real GDP growth to slow in Q2 after staying stable for the past three quarters
- We expect real GDP growth to slow to 6.7% y-o-y in Q2 from 6.8% in Q1, given signs of growth momentum losing steam in Q2
- High-frequency data (growth of coal consumption by six power plants and crude steel production) and weaker-than-expected official and Caixin June PMIs add conviction to our slowdown view
We expect industrial production growth to moderate further to 6.6% y-o-y in June.
- Deleveraging over the past year should continue to weigh on investment, and we expect fixed asset investment growth to slow to 5.9% y-o-y ytd.
Retail sales growth may rebound mildly to 8.8% y-o-y in June from a much weaker-than-expected 8.5% in May, partly driven by price factors.
I posted earlier on hwat to expect:
2Q GDP y/y
- expected 6.7%, prior 6.8%
- for the q/q (sa) expected 1.6%, prior 1.4%
- YTD y/y expected 6.7%, prior 6.8%
Also from China at the same time, activity data for June
- Retail Sales y/y expected 8.8%, prior 8.5%
- Retail Sales YTD y/y expected 9.4%, prior 9.5%
- Industrial Production y/y expected 6.5%, prior 6.8%
- Industrial Production YTD y/y expected 6.8%, prior 6.9%
- Fixed Assets excl. rural YTD y/y expected 6.0%, prior 6.1%