Trump mulled his own impeachment today
US President Donald Trump thinks he's personally responsible for the stock market gains since he was elected in late 2016... and he's right.
If Trump had lost to Hillary Clinton I can confidently say that the stock market wouldn't be as high as it is right now. Even though he's created a tremendous amount of trade uncertainty, that's far outweighed by cuts to corporate taxes and regulatory reform.
However, that's in the past. Trump wants people to think it would all be undone if he were impeached. That somehow Clinton and Democrats would take over and destroy the economy.
That's not at all what would happen. Trump would simply be replaced by Vice President Mike Pence and Congress would remain unchanged.
Pence would undoubtedly leave the in place the tax-cut and deregulation agenda so in terms of policy, the mix would be the same.
What's really driven the stock market gains isn't so much Trump. It's the combination of Republican control of the House, Senate and White House along with the abandonment of fiscal restraint. All three of those things would remain in place under President Pence.
So what would happen to markets?
They would rise. At least they would rise after all the turmoil died down and the market came to terms with a new President.
They would rise because there's a good chance Pence would abandon or at least temper much of the tough action on trade. That alone would probably add 10% to the market over time.