Economic data due from Australia and New Zealand today, and perhaps some data from China (Perhaps? Read on ...)

2200GMT - New Zealand - REINZ September House Sales y/y, prior was 41.7%

  • Yes, that's right, a 41% increase y/y in August.
  • National median price up 10.7% on August 2014 (excluding the red hot Auckland market the figure was up 2.5% y/y... and in Auckland alone prices were +20.5% y/y)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in a bit of a tight spot, they'd like to let interest rates come down a bit further (the RBNZ is required to get inflation around 2%, its currently around 0.3%) but are constrained by the growth in house prices ... According to one analyst at BNZ (not RBNZ, the private sector bank BNZ), cutting rates may be pointless:

  • "The whole purpose of cutting interest rates is...the economy goes better because businesses invest more because it's cheaper to borrow money...and households feel more comfortable to take on more debt to buy [goods] ... That's all very well but we are not hearing businesses saying that the cost of debt is stopping them from doing anything."
  • BNZ is routinely asking business clients what lower interest rates would do to their spending plans ... "Almost to a person we get 'well, it wouldn't change our view at all'

More here

Moving on ....

Due at 0030GMT - Australia - Credit Card Purchases and Balance for August, priors of $24.7bn and $50.5bn AUD respectively.

  • Not a market-mover

And ... that's it ....unless...

From China, due this week (maybe today ... I don't have a firm schedule for this apart from some time between the 12th and 15th):

  • Aggregate Financing (CNY) for September, expected 1200bn and prior was 1082.3bn
  • September Money Supply M1, expected +9.8% y/y, while prior was +9.3%
  • Money Supply M2 for September, expected +13.1%, prior was +13.3
  • Money Supply M0 expected +3.0% y/y, prior +1.8%
  • September New Yuan Loans, expected is 900bn, prior was 809.6bn CNY

The 'China is doomed' meme has reduced in intensity in the past week or two, the markets will be looking for financing growth figures to confirm or deny their perception. Better results on this data will add comfort to the 'China is not so doomed after all' meme and will be a supportive input for 'risk' assets.