I posted a preview of the nonfarm payroll report from TD earlier here (yes, despite the headline it includes the TD forecast):
TD add their thoughts on where to for those 3 currencies above:
- The USD has remained confined to tight ranges against most G10 currencies, but risks of a stronger dollar have edged up in recent days. Much will depend, however, on this month's jobs report.
- Our base case for a softer reading is likely to keep a lid on USD upside against the majors, but an unexpected upside surprise would likely attract renewed interest to cover latent USD shorts.
- If confirmed, our 500K estimate would likely be seen as a disappointment to those looking for a rebound from April's lacklustre report. Here, AUD and JPY stand out to us as likely candidates for a positive move as our reading of positioning and valuation currently looks more constructive here.
