Economists continue to be wrong about the US recovery
The strength of the rebound in nearly all global economies surpassed the consensus but nowhere more than in the United States, where economists failed to account for huge government spending offsetting virus shutdowns.
The Citi Economic Surprise Index measures economic data compared to the consensus and the US remains far out in front. That's probably not a new story but more recently it's been the improvement in the eurozone and Canada that's getting traction in FX.
At the bottom of the list? Switzerland. It's at -18.2.
That just goes to show that FX doesn't always follow economic data in the short run.
Or maybe the market is signaling some mean reversion in the economic recovery?
Either way, this pair is on track to close at a five-year low today.