Brexit latest
Well Theresa May did it. It what was billed as tough week for Theresa May. With her being summoned to the 1922 committee and vitriolic language being used in anticipation of the event one might have reasonable expected a bloodbath. Instead it was described by Tory MP Michael Fabricant as 'more like a petting zoo than a lion's den'. Ouch, so much for the tough hard Brexiteers. Critics claimed that the event was carefully managed by Tory whips, but in a truly tempestuous place they would be unable to halt the total wave of dissent. It is clearly not there.
So, given that there was more difficulties for Theresa May last night, it is worth remembering what is needed to happen for Theresa May to be given a vote of no confidence. She would need 48 MP's to say they have lost confidence in her to trigger a vote. Then, when that has happened, there would need to be a total vote of 158 Conservative MP's to oust her. That is just over half of all the Conservative MP's. The reality is that Theresa May is not actually doing a bad job. The one sticking point is the Northern Irish hard border issue and that will be near on impossible for anyone to solve. Also that problem is not going to go away. So if a vote was triggered I think May would win it. The kicker then is that once that vote is triggered it can't be re-triggered for another year. That would mean Theresa May would be in the driving seat through the withdrawal deadline of March 2019. She would be able to see the job through.
So, a vote of no confidence would like have the following effect. Firstly, an instant fall in the GBP. So, it is worth listening to a squawk just for this news. It would be worth at least a quick 50+ points, just being at the right place at the right time. Secondly, the market will then be doing the maths as to who will vote for her or who will vote against her. Once that picture becomes clear, and , as I suspect the votes mean May is in place, we would see GBP appreciate.
One to watch, and make a note of the points.