What are your expectations for tomorrow's FOMC?

  1. Hike or no hike?
  2. Hawkish/dovish/same old, same old?

The probability of a hike tomorrow, as implied by the FFR futures is 2%. That's up from zero this time last month. It stood at 39.5% a day after the Dec hike and 48.0% a week later.

Adam has more on what's priced into tomorrow's FOMC

I'm surprised that expectations are so low and that presents a big risk to the market. I'm going to have a think about it but if the market is leaning so far towards unchanged a cheeky USD long may be the low risk trade.

Is old ma Yellen ready to fire again?