The US jobs report on Friday showed much stronger than expected job growth. Stocks moved higher. Yields moved higher. The market adjusted for the potential for no rate hike in November. The expectation is now up to 14.5% (with 85% for a cut of 25 basis points). A couple weeks ago the markets were preparing for a 50 basis point cut (with expectations in the 60% range for a 50 bp cut).
The dust is settling today and the major indices are opening lower retracing some of the gains from Friday. However, they are off the premarket levels implied by the futures. A snapshot of the market five minutes into the open is currently showing:
- Dow industrial average -201.07 points or -0.47% at 42151.68
- S&P index -20.24 points or -0.35% had 5730.83
- NASDAQ index -59.99 points or -0.33% at 18077.86
The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -9.86 points or -0.45% had 2202.93
Looking at the US yield curve:
- 2-year yield 3.986%, +5.5 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.860%, +4.6 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.015%, +3.5 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.289%, +2.2 basis points
Crude oil is trading up $1.13 or 1.52% at $75.52. Gold is trading down $7.95 or -0.29% at $2645.50. Bitcoin is trading that lower from earlier levels at $62,994. That is still down from its high price today and $63,975.
The US is bracing for another hurricane (hurricane Milton) with winds at 150 mph (it is a Category 4 storm) it is scheduled to make landfall Wednesday night.